What Happened

A new poll conducted February 11-13, 2025, reveals that 46% of Canadians believe U.S. President Donald Trump will raise tariffs on Canada, marking a 19 percentage point increase since May 2025. Only 20% of respondents think these tariffs will be rescinded, a sharp 20 percentage point drop from the previous year. This growing anxiety coincides with discussions about a new trade deal and follows an ill-timed social media post by Trump suggesting Canada could become America's 51st state. Canadians are increasingly viewing this rhetoric not as a joke but as a serious threat to their sovereignty and economy. The poll indicates that 76% of Canadians see American tariffs as a direct threat to the economy. In response, 55% are boycotting American goods if a non-American option is available. Economic anxiety is translating into consumer behavior, with 34% of Canadians cancelling trips to the U.S. and 30% avoiding American restaurant franchises in Canada. Entertainment choices are also shifting, as 25% are avoiding American entertainment options. Political leaders are facing varying levels of public scrutiny over their handling of these threats. Premier David Eby of British Columbia has seen his approval rise to 59%, up 3 percentage points since May. Conversely, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s approval has dropped to 36%, down 11 percentage points, recording the lowest approval for premier handling of tariff threats. Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s approval has also fallen to 45%, down 13 percentage points. Prime Minister Mark Carney handled Trump's tariffs with 57% approval, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre holds 30% approval regarding tariff handling. Mario Canseco, president of Research Co., noted that distrust of Trump contributes to the perception of military threat. The military threat perception is more due to distrust of Trump than actual scenarios. Canadians originally believed Trump was bluffing about tariffs, but the erratic nature of his statements has made them uneasy. 53% of Canadians view America as a military threat, with 56% of those aged 18-34 and 54% of those aged 35-54 sharing this view. 47% of Canadians aged 55 and over also view the U.S. as a military threat. 60% of Liberal voters believe America is a military threat, compared to 46% of Conservative voters. The poll highlights a significant shift in Canadian public opinion regarding U.S. relations and economic security.

Why It Matters

The surge in tariff fears and the rejection of annexation talk signal a profound shift in Canadian public sentiment toward the United States. This is not merely a political disagreement but an economic and social realignment. The high percentage of Canadians viewing the U.S. as a military threat, driven by distrust of Trump rather than actual military posturing, indicates deep-seated anxiety about sovereignty. This anxiety is directly impacting consumer behavior, with significant portions of the population boycotting American goods, services, and travel. For policymakers, this creates pressure to diversify trade relationships and strengthen domestic industries. The varying approval ratings of premiers suggest that provincial governments are being judged on their ability to protect local economies from U.S. trade policies. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s higher approval rating compared to Pierre Poilievre suggests that the current federal approach to handling Trump's tariffs is resonating better with the public. The decline in approval for Alberta and Ontario premiers highlights the political risk of perceived inaction or ineffective response to U.S. threats. This polling data provides a critical snapshot of Canadian confidence in the face of external economic pressure. It underscores the urgency of addressing tariff concerns to maintain economic stability and public trust. The rejection of annexation talk also reinforces national identity and unity in the face of perceived external aggression. The data suggests that Canadians are actively seeking alternatives to American products and services, which could have long-term implications for trade balances and domestic market growth. The shift in public opinion is likely to influence future trade negotiations and diplomatic strategies between Canada and the U.S.

Local Vancouver / Burnaby Context

In British Columbia, the political response to U.S. tariff threats is closely watched, with Premier David Eby’s approval rating rising to 59%, up 3 percentage points since May 2025. This increase suggests that the provincial government’s handling of the situation is resonating with the public. British Columbia’s economy is heavily reliant on trade with the United States, making tariff threats particularly sensitive. The province’s position as a gateway for trade and its diverse economy mean that any disruption in U.S. relations could have significant local impacts. In Burnaby, a city with a strong industrial and commercial base, the fear of tariffs could affect businesses that rely on cross-border supply chains. The rise in Canadian nationalism and the rejection of U.S. annexation talk reflect a broader trend in British Columbia where local identity and economic independence are increasingly valued. The province’s leadership in responding to U.S. trade policies is likely to influence its political standing in federal-provincial negotiations. The polling data also highlights the generational divide in threat perception, with younger Canadians (18-34) showing the highest concern about the U.S. as a military threat. This demographic shift could influence future political priorities and policy directions in British Columbia. The province’s diverse population and strong immigrant communities may also contribute to a more nuanced view of U.S. relations, balancing economic ties with cultural and political differences. The rise in approval for Premier Eby suggests that his government’s approach to managing these challenges is being viewed positively by the public. This could have implications for future elections and policy initiatives in British Columbia. The local context in Burnaby and Vancouver is shaped by the province’s economic dependencies and political dynamics, making the polling results particularly relevant for local stakeholders.

Market Impact

The surge in tariff fears and the rejection of annexation talk are likely to impact market confidence and consumer spending. A significant portion of Canadians are already boycotting American goods and cancelling trips to the U.S., which could reduce revenue for businesses reliant on U.S. customers. This shift in consumer behavior may lead to increased demand for domestic alternatives, benefiting local industries. However, the fear of tariffs could also lead to uncertainty in investment and planning, particularly for businesses with cross-border operations. The perception of the U.S. as a military threat, while driven by distrust of Trump, may influence long-term strategic decisions regarding trade and security. The varying approval ratings of political leaders suggest that the market is closely watching government responses to these threats. A more unified and effective response could stabilize market confidence, while perceived weakness could exacerbate uncertainty. The polling data indicates that Canadians are actively seeking to reduce their dependence on the U.S., which could lead to diversification of trade partners and supply chains. This shift could have implications for currency values, interest rates, and overall economic stability. The impact on specific sectors, such as tourism and retail, will depend on the extent of the boycott and the availability of alternatives. The rise in Canadian nationalism may also influence consumer preferences, favoring domestic brands and products. The market impact will be closely tied to the outcome of trade negotiations and the actual implementation of any new tariffs. The polling results provide a valuable indicator of public sentiment that could influence policy decisions and market dynamics.

Builder / Developer Perspective

The construction and development sector in British Columbia and Burnaby may face indirect impacts from the surge in tariff fears. While the poll focuses on economic and political sentiment, the fear of tariffs could lead to broader economic uncertainty, affecting investment and consumer confidence in real estate. If tariffs disrupt trade and economic growth, it could slow down housing demand and development activity. However, the rise in Canadian nationalism and the rejection of U.S. annexation talk may also foster a sense of local identity and support for domestic industries, potentially benefiting local builders and developers. The varying approval ratings of political leaders suggest that the government’s response to U.S. threats will be closely watched by the business community. A more effective response could stabilize market confidence and support continued development activity. The polling data also highlights the importance of economic security and sovereignty, which may influence policy decisions regarding housing and development. Builders and developers should monitor trade policy developments and consumer sentiment to anticipate potential shifts in the market. The rise in threat perception among younger Canadians may also influence future housing preferences and demand patterns. The impact on the construction sector will depend on the actual implementation of tariffs and the government’s ability to mitigate their effects.

BurnabyHouse Insight

The polling data reveals a profound shift in Canadian public sentiment, driven by distrust of Trump rather than actual military threats. This shift is not just political but economic and social, with significant impacts on consumer behavior and market confidence. In British Columbia, the rise in approval for Premier Eby suggests that the provincial government’s response to U.S. threats is resonating with the public. This is particularly relevant for Burnaby and Vancouver, where trade and economic stability are critical. The rejection of annexation talk reinforces national identity and unity, which could influence future policy directions and trade strategies. The surge in tariff fears highlights the urgency of diversifying trade relationships and strengthening domestic industries. For local stakeholders, this means closely monitoring trade policy developments and consumer sentiment to anticipate potential shifts in the market. The polling data provides a valuable indicator of public confidence that could influence policy decisions and market dynamics. The rise in Canadian nationalism may also foster a sense of local identity and support for domestic industries, potentially benefiting local builders and developers. The impact on the construction sector will depend on the actual implementation of tariffs and the government’s ability to mitigate their effects.