What Happened

Daniel Foch, Chief Real Estate Officer at Valery.ca and host of Canada’s #1 real estate podcast, identified a genuine housing market rebound in May, noting that the recovery began from a historically depressed baseline. Foch, who co-founded the data science platform The Habistat for TRREB and Proptx, argues that market turns are first visible through behavioural shifts rather than immediate price spikes. He points to specific indicators such as buyers requesting second showings and listing agents hearing fewer dead phone lines after open houses as early signals of renewed activity. Additionally, sellers who previously demanded 2022 price levels are now adjusting their expectations and asking where the first real offer might land. This analysis was published by Real Estate Magazine (REM), Canada’s premier independent magazine for real estate professionals, which is not affiliated with any real estate association or board.

Why It Matters

The identification of a rebound in May is significant because it suggests that market balance is being restored after the pandemic-era surges, even though prices have stalled. Foch’s focus on behavioural indicators highlights that a housing turn arrives through changes in buyer and seller actions before it is reflected in broader market data. This perspective is crucial for understanding that while the rebound is real, the starting point was very low, implying the recovery is emerging from a depressed market condition. The shift in seller expectations from 2022 levels indicates a necessary adjustment in pricing strategies as the market normalizes. Understanding these behavioural cues helps stakeholders anticipate market movements before they become obvious in transaction volumes or price trends.

Local Vancouver / Burnaby Context

In the context of Greater Vancouver and Burnaby, the restoration of market balance is critical given the region's history of rapid price growth and subsequent corrections. Local market data often shows that inventory levels returning to pre-pandemic norms and mortgage rates drifting down are key drivers of such rebounds. While specific neighbourhood data for May is not detailed in the source, the general trend in British Columbia involves home prices declining and listings rising, with buyers pulling back in response to affordability pressures. The local knowledge context emphasizes that housing market recovery is often measured by behavioural changes in buyers and sellers, which aligns with Foch’s observations. This behavioural shift is particularly relevant in markets like Burnaby and Vancouver, where high density and regulatory frameworks influence buyer sentiment and seller flexibility.

Market Impact

The practical impact of this rebound includes a potential stabilization in condo markets and land values as buyer confidence slowly returns. Owners may see increased liquidity as more buyers engage with properties, indicated by second showings and reduced dead phone lines. However, the low starting point suggests that price growth may remain modest in the near term, with sellers needing to adjust expectations from previous highs. Investors and buyers may find more opportunities as sellers become more willing to negotiate, but the market remains sensitive to mortgage rates and inventory levels. The rebound signals a shift from panic to normalization, where market participants are making more calculated decisions based on current conditions rather than past peaks.

Investor / Buyer Takeaway

- Buyers should watch for behavioural signals like increased second showings and fewer dead phone lines as early indicators of market shifts.

- Sellers must adjust price expectations from 2022 levels, as the market is no longer defined by those peaks.

- Investors should focus on markets where inventory is returning to pre-pandemic norms, as this often precedes price stabilization.

- Monitor mortgage rate trends, as they continue to influence buyer affordability and market balance.

- Be cautious of overreacting to short-term rebounds, as the starting point was very low and recovery may be gradual.

Builder / Developer Perspective

For builders and developers, the behavioural indicators noted by Foch suggest a slow but steady return of buyer interest, which is essential for pre-sale feasibility. However, the low starting point implies that new projects must be priced competitively to attract buyers who are still adjusting to post-2022 market realities. Financing and construction costs remain critical factors, as developers need to ensure that project economics align with current buyer expectations. The shift in seller expectations also affects land acquisition, as land values may need to be renegotiated to reflect the new market balance. Developers should focus on transparency and data-driven pricing to navigate this transitional period effectively.

Risk Factors

- Mortgage rate volatility could stall the rebound if rates do not continue to drift down.

- Inventory levels may not return to pre-pandemic norms quickly enough to support price stability.

- Seller expectations may remain misaligned with current market conditions, leading to prolonged listing times.

- Buyer pullback in response to affordability pressures could limit the rebound's momentum.

- Regulatory changes in British Columbia could impact housing supply and market dynamics.

BurnabyHouse Insight

Foch’s emphasis on behavioural indicators over raw data provides a nuanced view of the Canadian housing market’s recovery. In Burnaby and Vancouver, where market sentiment can swing rapidly, these subtle cues are vital for accurate assessment. The rebound in May, while real, is emerging from a deeply depressed baseline, suggesting that the path to normalization will be gradual. Stakeholders should prioritize understanding these behavioural shifts to make informed decisions, rather than relying solely on historical price benchmarks. This approach aligns with the need for transparency and data-driven insights in a market that is still finding its balance.