What Happened

Global research indicates that average levels of subjective well-being fall as population size and density increase, challenging the prevailing push for greater density in Metro Vancouver. A study conducted by UBC economics professors John Helliwell and Hugh Shiplett found that people are significantly less happy in urban areas compared to towns and rural regions. The researchers examined how density affects urban pollution, criminal gang activity, and access to green space across 1,200 Canadian neighbourhoods. Vancouver is already the most dense city in Canada, with 5,750 people per square kilometre, yet city councillors have rammed through several mass upzonings in recent years. These upzonings impact virtually every lot in the city, reflecting broader trends across Metro Vancouver. Metro Vancouver itself is the fourth-densest region in North America, making the region a primary target for density mandates. The findings suggest that despite the housing supply goals, the quality of life for residents may be deteriorating as density rises. Douglas Todd, the columnist reporting these findings, has won 38 Canadian and international journalism prizes for his work. The study's conclusions align with global research showing that cities are generally less satisfying places to live than smaller communities.

Why It Matters

The disconnect between policy goals and resident happiness is critical for Metro Vancouver's housing strategy. If density mandates are reducing well-being, the social license for further upzonings may erode. This impacts the political viability of projects like the Broadway plan, which imposes more than 150 large residential highrises on a zone of 500-square blocks. Residents may resist further density if they perceive it as lowering their quality of life without improving their economic prospects. The focus on density as the primary solution to housing affordability may need to be re-evaluated in light of these well-being costs.

Local Vancouver / Burnaby Context

Vancouver has long been the most dense city in Canada, but recent years have seen an acceleration of this trend through aggressive upzonings. The Broadway plan is a key example, introducing uniformity and sterility through blocky highrises. This contrasts with the desire for community satisfaction, as seen in other local issues like the Empty Homes Tax or tenant eviction disputes. The push for density is often justified by migration goals, such as the Century Initiative's vision of 100 million people by 2100. However, the local context suggests that residents are already living in high-density conditions that may not be enhancing their happiness. Burnaby and other Metro municipalities are also affected by these regional density trends, even if Vancouver is the epicenter.

Market Impact

Higher density may not be improving the desirability of Metro Vancouver real estate if it correlates with lower happiness. This could affect long-term demand for high-density condos in areas like the Broadway corridor. Buyers may start to prioritize green space and lower density over sheer location, potentially impacting land values in upzoned areas. The market may see a shift in sentiment as residents become more aware of the well-being costs of density. This could lead to increased resistance to new developments in already dense neighbourhoods.

Investor / Buyer Takeaway

- Buyers should consider the quality of life in high-density areas, not just proximity to amenities.

- Investors in upzoned areas may face political headwinds as resident dissatisfaction grows.

- Properties with access to green space may retain value better than those in dense, sterile environments.

- Watch for shifts in political support for density mandates as well-being concerns rise.

- Consider the long-term desirability of high-density living for future resale value.

Builder / Developer Perspective

Builders may find it increasingly difficult to sell high-density units if the market perceives them as lowering quality of life. The political risk of opposing density mandates is growing, which could complicate the permitting process. Developers may need to focus more on amenities and green space to mitigate resident dissatisfaction. The feasibility of large-scale projects like the Broadway plan may be questioned if resident happiness declines. Financing may become more sensitive to political risk as density policies face scrutiny.

Risk Factors

- Political backlash against density mandates could slow down development approvals.

- Resident dissatisfaction may lead to stricter regulations on high-rise construction.

- Market demand for high-density units may decline if well-being costs are perceived as too high.

- Increased resistance to upzonings could lead to legal challenges and delays.

- Potential for policy shifts away from density as the primary housing solution.

BurnabyHouse Insight

The push for density in Metro Vancouver is hitting a wall of resident dissatisfaction. While policymakers focus on supply and migration, studies show that happiness is falling. This suggests that the current model of mass upzonings may be counterproductive. The region needs to balance density with quality of life, or risk losing support for its housing goals. The Broadway plan is a flashpoint for this tension, and its success will depend on addressing resident concerns. Burnaby and other municipalities should watch this trend closely as they plan their own growth.